It’s an official warning for humanity, as the new data shows that the Earth has exceeded temperatures of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) crossing the critical line of temperatures for the very first time in human history.
The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) on Thursday, reported that over a 12-month period— between February 2023 to January 2024—global warming has recorded the highest temperature on record, scientists calling it a “warning to humanity”.
In 2023, the planet experienced unprecedented heatwaves, storms, droughts, and wildfires due to both climate change and the El Niño weather phenomenon, which heats the surface waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean. This combination made it the hottest year on record globally since 1850.
The trend of extreme weather events has persisted into 2024, as confirmed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), with temperatures averaging 1.52°C above pre-industrial levels.
In May 2023, the World Meteorological Organization published a report highlighting a 66% likelihood that the annual average global temperature in 2023-2027 would be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year.
Ian Duff, Greenpeace International campaigner, said that crossing the temperature above 1.5°C is a “frightening reminder that government action to bring down emissions to zero is more urgent than ever”.
Duff who campaigns for Greenpeace’s ‘Stop Drilling Start Paying climate campaign, pointed that every fraction of rise in temperature brings about increasingly severe weather events and contributes to greater sea level rise, which directly affects millions of people and ecosystems worldwide.
Duff called for the need to stop all new oil and gas projects and said that “polluters like Chevron, Exxon, Shell, and TotalEnergies must be made to pay for the damage they’ve caused by financing the just and fair transition away from fossil fuels that we need.”
Also, research indicates that limiting the temperature increase to 1.5°C could potentially safeguard coral reefs, maintain Arctic sea ice levels, and reduce the frequency and severity of deadly heatwaves.
However, despite the alarming statistics, scientists said that the world has not yet permanently surpassed the crucial 1.5°C warming threshold outlined in the Paris climate agreement. This benchmark is measured over decades, highlighting the urgent need for continued efforts to mitigate climate change and its devastating impacts.
The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit the global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. This agreement was made in recognition of the severe impacts of climate change and the need for urgent and ambitious action to mitigate its effects.
Meanwhile it is important to emphasize that the temperature targets of 1.5°C and 2°C outlined in the Paris Agreement refer to average global temperatures over twenty or thirty-year periods typically used to define climate. However, the impacts of climate change vary greatly depending on the season and location. Therefore, exceeding these limits at any particular time or place may not immediately signify significant consequences.
As global temperatures continue to rise and surpass the 1.5°C threshold more frequently, the cumulative effects of these exceedances will become increasingly serious. It’s crucial to closely monitor these trends to understand how rapidly we are approaching long-term thresholds.
Wildfires
According to Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) report about global wildfire activity in 2023, Canada experienced unprecedented wildfires, with approximately 18 million hectares of land engulfed by flames. These fires emitted an estimated 480 million tonnes of carbon, nearly five times the average over the past two decades.
Greece faced its worst wildfires in 20 years, particularly impacting the Evros region of East Macedonia and Thrace, resulting in significant casualties and a cumulative burned area of almost 175,000 hectares. Spain witnessed heightened wildfire emissions, particularly in March, while wildfires in the Canary Islands reached their highest carbon emission levels since 2003.
In Southeast Asia, Indonesia saw a resurgence in fire activity due to El Niño, leading to deteriorating air quality across the country and the wider region. South America experienced notable wildfires in Chile and Argentina, with Chilean fires affecting over 270,000 hectares of territory and Argentine wildfires above average in intensity. Australia faced large-scale bushfires in northern regions, with carbon emissions reaching their highest level since 2012.
Russia observed fluctuating wildfire activity, with significant fires burning in various regions including the Far Eastern Federal District. North Africa experienced heightened wildfire activity in January, with smoke plumes traveling across the tropical Atlantic as far as South America. Notably, wildfires in northern Algeria in July resulted in evacuations and casualties.
The report highlights the urgent need for effective wildfire management strategies and climate change mitigation efforts to address the escalating threat posed by wildfires worldwide.
Heatwaves/ Droughts
The XAIDA consortium, consisting of prominent European climate institutes, said that the surge in temperatures intensified various weather extremes, including heatwaves, droughts, and extreme rainfall events, notably hurricanes Otis and Daniel during an online media briefing on 9th January 2024.
According to their report, heatwaves emerged as a significant concern, gripping regions like the United States, southern Europe, and China, where temperatures soared beyond 50°C. XAIDA’s research indicated potential for even more extreme temperatures, posing risks to public health and large-scale events like the upcoming Paris Olympics.
The World Weather Attribution service–a global network of scientists who investigate the influence of climate change on extreme weather events–finds in their July 2023 study that the heatwaves in the US and Europe would have been “virtually impossible” in a world without climate change.
According to the rapid attribution study, nearly one-third of the US population faced historic heatwaves, with temperatures exceeding 100°F (37.8°C).
Southern Europe grappled with soaring temperatures under the “Cerberus” heatwave, leading to a surge in hospital cases. The study said that likelihood of such events increasing by at least 50 times, highlighting the negligible impact of the El Niño cycle compared to climate change.
If global temperatures rise to 2°C above preindustrial levels, extreme heat events of this magnitude could occur every 2-5 years. Southern Europe faced scorching temperatures exceeding 40°C, with Rome recording a new high of 41.8°C. China, too, witnessed its highest-ever temperature, reaching 52.2°C in Xinjiang. These alarming trends underscore the urgent need for global action to address climate change and mitigate its devastating impacts.
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