The United Kingdom’s population grew by 662,400 in the year to June 2023, marking the largest increase since the early 1970s, official data revealed on Tuesday. The growth was driven largely by high net migration, with more people arriving in the country than leaving. According to new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the population now stands at 68.3 million, a 1% rise from the previous year.
While net international migration contributed 677,300 to the population surge, the natural change in population—calculated as the difference between births and deaths—saw a decline. There were 16,300 more deaths than births, a negative shift not seen since 1976, excluding the Covid-19 pandemic.
According to data, Scotland and Wales recorded particularly high death rates, with 19,000 and 9,500 more deaths than births, respectively. In contrast, both England and Northern Ireland saw more births than deaths, though the margins were relatively small. The natural change figures represent a significant shift for the UK, with previous projections suggesting such a trend would not occur until the mid-2030s.
Despite the negative natural growth, the UK’s overall population continues to rise, with immigration acting as the primary driver. “Without that net migration figure, the UK’s population would have fallen,” noted the ONS report.
In response to the figures, Downing Street reiterated its commitment to reducing net migration. A spokesman for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stated, “The government will end the situation where legal migration is used as an alternative to tackling skill shortages in the UK.”
The population increase was most significant in England and Wales, each experiencing a 1% rise. Scotland saw a smaller growth rate of 0.8%, and Northern Ireland had the slowest increase at 0.5%. These rates are the highest since 1971 for England, Wales, and Scotland, and the most substantial since 2019 for Northern Ireland.
Experts say the negative natural change is not entirely unexpected. Professor Sarah Harper, director of the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing, told PA news agency, “The number of deaths we expect will increase each year over time as this generation of older adults ages and dies.”
He further explained that as the large post-war birth cohorts continue to age, the UK is seeing fewer births and longer life spans contributing to the rising death toll. “This is a trend that is likely to continue as fewer babies are born in the UK,” added Harper.
Looking ahead, the ONS projects that the UK’s population could reach 74 million by 2036. Net migration is expected to contribute significantly to this increase, with a projected 6.1 million people entering the UK by that time. Additionally, there will likely be about 500,000 more births than deaths and an extra one million people aged 85 and over, underscoring the ongoing challenges related to an aging population.
The surge in net migration has continued to be a politically charged issue in the UK. Prior to the general election, the Conservative government claimed credit for reducing net migration, though the latest figures suggest the issue remains far from resolved.
In 2023, the UK saw record levels of immigration, particularly from non-European countries like India, Nigeria, and Pakistan, due to visa rule changes and labor shortages in sectors such as healthcare. While net migration in the year to mid-2023 reached 677,300, this marked a decrease from the peak of 764,000 in the previous year.
With the UK’s population expected to keep growing in the coming decades, largely due to immigration, the challenge for policymakers remains how to balance public services, economic needs, and political pressures.
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