A new report by global accounting firm PwC has forecast that global and U.S. box office revenues won’t fully return to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2030, signaling a longer-than-expected recovery for the cinema industry. Despite modest growth over the next few years, the industry will remain just shy of its 2019 benchmarks by the end of 2029.
In its annual Global Entertainment & Media Outlook report, PwC projects U.S. cinema revenue will grow from $8.9 billion in 2024 to $10.8 billion in 2029, still short of the nearly $11.7 billion generated in 2019. U.S. box office revenue alone is expected to reach only $9.8 billion by 2029, below the $10.7 billion mark in 2019.
“Unfortunately, this full recovery is unlikely within the forecast period. However, we project that by the end of 2029, the industry will be on the brink of a full rebound. In other words, 2030 may be the year global box office revenues return to pre-pandemic levels,” said Bart Spiegel, PwC’s global entertainment and media leader.
The study also attributes the sluggish rebound to persistent challenges—among them, the lasting impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, shifts in viewing habits, and industry-wide disruptions like the 2023 WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes, which delayed major releases. The total U.S. cinema revenue dropped from $9.1 billion in 2023 to $8.9 billion in 2024—a dip PwC says “was anticipated and not as steep as had originally been feared,” but still affected studios’ bottom lines.
Audience numbers tell a similar story. The U.S. saw 777 million admissions in 2023, which is projected to dip to 734 million in 2024 before rebounding to 823 million by 2029. That’s still far below the 1.3 billion admissions recorded in 2019. However, ticket prices continue to rise, with PwC projecting an average admission cost of $11.86 in 2029—more than $2 higher than during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021.
“It’s important to remember that industry revenues are ultimately driven by price times volume. In this case, while ticket prices are rising, admissions (volume) are not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels,” Spiegel noted. “Instead, the growth in global box office revenue is being fueled by higher ticket prices. These ticket price increases are driven by several factors, including enhanced infrastructure and facilities, technological advancements, and rising content costs.”
Globally, the box office is expected to climb from $29.7 billion in 2024 to $37.7 billion by 2029—still short of the $39.4 billion earned in 2019.
PwC’s report also observes the long-term evolution of the U.S. film sector. “In recent years, the U.S. film sector has been disrupted. The streamers overturned traditional business models, the pandemic hit the box office, and the 2023 strikes stymied the post-COVID-19 recovery. But U.S. industry history reveals that the sector has experienced challenges many times before, with everything from the conversion to sound to the anti-trust legislation of the 1940s, the arrival of TV as a mass medium in the 1940s and 1950s, and the VHS revolution of the 1970s. In each case, the sector recovered. It is doing so again now.”
The growth that is occurring, the report notes, is largely being driven by franchise films. In 2024, Disney led the U.S. market with Inside Out 2, Deadpool & Wolverine, and Moana 2 among the year’s top five hits. Major studios including Universal, Warner Bros., Sony, and Paramount also scored big with tentpole releases, many of which will extend into 2025. That year is projected to bring a robust slate of 110 films in wide release—up from 95 in 2024.
However, mid-budget films, including many award contenders, continue to struggle at the box office. According to the report, “These are the pictures that spectators seemingly prefer to watch at home.”
PwC also signals a decline in experiments with simultaneous theatrical and streaming releases. “This reveals a shift in the studios’ mindset and an acknowledgement that releasing in cinemas first is still regarded as the most reliable way to drive ancillary sales,” the report says, noting that streamers like Apple and Amazon MGM have committed to theatrical windows for major films.
Though Netflix continues to prioritize streaming, even for prestige films like Emilia Pérez, which earned 13 Oscar nominations despite only a limited theatrical run, other studios are leaning into cinema’s appeal. “U.S. exhibitors have been trumpeting research that suggests the public is re-embracing the theatrical experience,” PwC states, citing UCLA findings that label opening weekend cinema visits as the top activity choice among people aged 10 to 24.
To attract premium audiences, cinemas have leaned into luxury upgrades, loyalty clubs, and immersive formats like PLF (Premium Large Format) and IMAX. As of 2024, North America hosts 950 large-format screens—up 37 percent from five years ago—and 2025 will see at least 14 films shot in IMAX hitting the big screen globally.
One of the biggest structural shifts came in 2024, when Sony acquired the Alamo Drafthouse theater chain—becoming the first major studio to own exhibition assets since the 1940s. “Anti-trust legislation that had been in place for over 70 years, from 1948 to 2020, meant that Hollywood studios were previously prevented from owning their own movie theatres,” PwC explains. Now, with those restrictions gone, other studios may follow suit, enabling full vertical integration in Hollywood once again.
Despite the bumps in the road, the study suggests that the cinema industry is gradually adapting. While full recovery is still five years away, the groundwork is being laid for a long-term resurgence—one fueled by high-impact tentpoles, rising premium experiences, and the enduring power of the theatrical release.
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