The world is rapidly approaching the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming limit that marks a critical threshold for increasingly dangerous climate change, according to new data released by European scientists.
Figures published on Wednesday by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, part of the European Union’s planetary observation programme, show that average global temperatures are now around 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. The data also confirms that 2025 ranked as the third-hottest year ever recorded globally.
Scientists warned that if current trends persist, the world will cross the 1.5°C limit set out in the Paris Agreement before the end of this decade. Under the 2015 accord, governments committed to limiting global warming to “well below” 2°C and, if possible, to 1.5°C. Every fraction of a degree beyond that point significantly heightens climate risks, including more extreme heatwaves, rising sea levels and the potential triggering of irreversible tipping points such as rainforest collapse and disruption of ocean circulation.
In theory, temperatures could be brought back below 1.5°C after crossing it through large-scale removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere—a scenario known as “overshoot.” However, scientists caution that the necessary technologies do not yet exist at the required scale.
“With the 1.5C in the terms of the Paris Agreement around the corner, now we are effectively entering a phase where it will be about managing that overshoot,” said Carlo Buontempo, speaking to reporters at a press conference.
“It’s basically inevitable that we will pass that threshold, and it’s up to us to decide how we want to deal with the enhanced and increased higher risk that we will face as a consequence of this,” he said, adding that the longer and deeper the overshoot, the greater the danger.
The only year to date that has exceeded the 1.5°C mark remains 2024, when global temperatures reached 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels. Buontempo noted that the Paris Agreement targets refer to long-term trends rather than short-term spikes. According to Copernicus, three different modelling approaches including five-year averages and 30-year linear trends which now indicate warming has reached approximately 1.4°C.
Copernicus data shows that 2025 averaged 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels, narrowly cooler than 2023. This occurred despite the end of an El Niño warming phase in mid-2024 and the emergence of a cooling La Niña pattern later in the year.
“The last three years in particular have been extremely warm compared to earlier years,” said Samantha Burgess. Taken together, she noted, the three-year average exceeded 1.5°C for the first time on record.
“The primary reason for these record temperatures is the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, dominated by the burning of fossil fuels,” Burgess said. “As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the air, temperatures continue to rise, including in the ocean; sea levels continue to rise, and glaciers, sea ice and ice sheets continue to melt.”
Europe also experienced its third-warmest year on record in 2025. Hot, dry and windy conditions fuelled severe wildfires, leading to the continent’s highest fire-related emissions since monitoring began 23 years ago.
Globally, around half the world experienced an above-average number of days with strong heat stress, defined as temperatures that feel like 32°C or higher. Burgess said regions such as much of Australia, parts of northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula endured more days of extreme heat stress, when perceived temperatures exceed 46°C.
“The summers we are facing now are very different to the summers that our parents experienced, very different to the summers that our grandparents experienced,” Burgess said. “Children today will be exposed to more heat hazards and more climate hazards than perhaps we were or our parents were.”
The polar regions were particularly affected. Antarctica recorded its hottest year on record, while the Arctic experienced its second-warmest. Polar sea ice remained below average throughout the year, briefly reaching a record low in February 2025. Scientists warned that shrinking ice accelerates warming by reducing the amount of sunlight reflected back into space.
European officials also voiced concern over recent cuts to climate science and data access by the Trump administration in the United States.
“Data and observations are obviously central to our efforts to confront climate change … and these challenges don’t know any borders,” said Florian Pappenberger, which oversees Copernicus. “Therefore, it is of course concerning that we have an issue in terms of data.”
The findings add to mounting scientific warnings that the window to avoid the most dangerous impacts of climate change is rapidly closing, shifting the global conversation from prevention to how societies manage an increasingly risky future.
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