Amazon MGM Studios has moved quickly to defend the theatrical performance of Melania after the documentary saw a sharp fall in its second weekend at the box office during the traditionally slow Super Bowl period.
The film is expected to suffer a steep decline, with early estimates suggesting a possible tenth-place finish and earnings of around $2.4 million. Some analysts believe it could place slightly higher, coming in ninth. The drop follows an opening weekend of $7.2 million, which marked the biggest domestic launch for a documentary in a decade, excluding concert and Disney nature films.
In response, Amazon MGM Studios issued a statement on Saturday underlining its confidence in the project’s long-term prospects across both theatrical and streaming platforms.
“Melania’s strong theatrical performance is a critical first moment that validates our wholistic distribution strategy, building awareness, engagement and provides momentum ahead of the film’s eventual debut on Prime Video,” said Amazon MGM distribution chief Kevin Wilson.
The documentary, directed by Brett Ratner, follows Melania Trump during the 20 days leading up to her husband’s second inauguration in 2025. It has drawn significant media attention after being promoted as the most expensive documentary ever produced. However, the actual budget remains unclear, as Amazon acquired the film through a licensing deal. Reports suggest Melania Trump received $28 million, while Ratner was also paid a substantial fee. Her longtime manager and producing partner Marc Beckman has played a key role in marketing the project.
In January 2025, Amazon MGM reportedly paid $40 million for global theatrical and streaming rights to the film and related docu-series content, beating out rival bidders. Disney was among those said to have offered between $14 million and $15 million for streaming rights alone. The studio is also believed to have spent around $35 million on global marketing, with overseas promotion estimated at $10 million to $15 million. So far, however, no international box office figures have been disclosed, despite the film playing in more than 20 countries.
Following its opening, Amazon MGM expanded the film’s domestic release by adding 200 theaters ahead of Super Bowl weekend. By Friday, Melania had earned $11.8 million in North America, including $865,000 for the day, placing ninth.
While the film’s streaming debut date has not yet been announced, industry insiders say it is unlikely to arrive on Prime Video immediately. A relatively swift transition is expected, allowing Amazon to leverage both theatrical and streaming marketing campaigns.
“Together, theatrical and streaming represent two distinct value creating moments that amplify the film’s overall impact. Audience response is already validating this approach, with exit data showing strong intent to rewatch on Prime Video and meaningful interest in the forthcoming docuseries,” Wilson said. “That interest is further amplified by the theatrical marketing halo we consistently see drive increased awareness and viewership once films launch on Prime Video, reinforcing long-term value across the movie’s entire lifecycle.”
Critically, the documentary has struggled. It currently holds an eight percent score on Rotten Tomatoes among professional reviewers, having hovered at six percent for much of the previous week. In contrast, its audience score stands at 99 percent, sparking speculation online about potential manipulation.
The website addressed the controversy directly, stating: “There has been NO manipulation on the audience reviews for the Melania documentary. Reviews displayed on the Popcornmeter are VERIFIED reviews, meaning it has been verified that users have bought a ticket to the film through Fandango.”
Industry observers note that fan-driven and event-style releases often record unusually high audience ratings.
The film’s challenges have also been compounded by the timing of its release. Super Bowl weekend is typically one of the weakest periods of the year for cinemas, with major studios avoiding major launches. This year’s marketplace has been crowded with independent releases, including several horror films and the K-pop concert movie Stray Kids: The dominATE Experience.
The concert film topped Friday’s chart with $3 million, while Disney and 20th Century’s Send Help is expected to repeat its box office lead with weekend earnings projected between $8 million and $10 million. Many other titles remain locked in a close race, leaving the final rankings uncertain.Despite the slowdown, Amazon MGM continues to frame Melania as a strategic success, betting that its combined theatrical and streaming life will deliver sustained value well beyond its opening weeks.
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