A new estimate from the Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM) indicates that more than 250 patients per week in England may have died unnecessarily last year due to extended waits for a bed in A&E.
According to the RCEM study, patients face increased risk after spending hours in A&E, especially after a decision has been made to admit them. Data shows that only 70.9% of patients attending A&E were admitted, transferred, or discharged within four hours, contrary to the NHS recovery plan target of 76% of patients.
In February, over 44,000 people waited more than 12 hours in A&E departments before being admitted, according to NHS data. The RCEM’s estimates on excess deaths are based on a study published in the Emergency Medicine Journal in 2021, which found that there was an excess death for every 72 patients spending eight to 12 hours in A&E, reported the Sky News.
The risk of death increased after five hours and escalated with longer waiting times. In 2022, the RCEM believed that between 300 to 500 excess deaths occurred each week in England using this calculation. However, after a Freedom of Information audit of NHS trusts, it was discovered that 65% of people waiting 12 hours or more in A&E were patients waiting for a hospital bed.
In 2023, more than 1.5 million patients waited 12 hours or more in major emergency departments, with over a million of those waiting for a bed. The RCEM’s refined calculations suggest an average of 268 excess deaths per week in 2023 for patients awaiting admission.
The college also noted that patients delayed in ambulances, which number in the thousands, are not included in the figures but are also at risk.
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