The fertility rate in England and Wales has plunged to its lowest level since records began in the 1930s, according to new data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). In 2023, the total fertility rate dropped to just 1.44 children per woman—marking a historic low since official records started in 1938.
The number of live births also saw a significant decline, falling to 591,072 in 2023, the lowest since 1977, when the figure was 569,259.
The ONS data reveals a steady decline in fertility rates across the two nations over the past decade, with the latest figures underscoring a continued downward trend. The fertility rate, which reflects the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime, fell from 1.49 in 2022 to 1.44 in 2023. This decline has been especially pronounced among younger women aged 20 to 24, where fertility rates have plummeted by 79% since 1964, dropping from 181.6 live births per 1,000 women in this age group to just 38.6 last year.
While the average age of mothers remained steady at 30.9 years, fathers’ average age increased slightly from 33.7 in 2022 to 33.8 in 2023.
Geographically, the most significant drops in the total fertility rate were seen in Wales (from 1.46 to 1.39) and the North West of England (from 1.53 to 1.46). London, the North East, and the West Midlands experienced more modest declines.
According to the report, stillbirth rates also saw changes. In Wales, the rate dropped from 4.4 per 1,000 births in 2022 to 4.0 in 2023, while in England, the rate remained at 3.9 per 1,000 births. The ONS noted a decrease in stillbirth rates among black, mixed, and white ethnic groups. However, stillbirth rates increased within the Asian and “any other” ethnic groups, and the overall stillbirth rates for Asian, black, and “any other” ethnic groups continue to remain higher than the overall rate for England and Wales.
Commenting on the findings, Greg Ceely, head of population health monitoring at the ONS, said, “The annual number of births in England and Wales continues its recent decline, with 2023 recording the lowest number of live births seen since 1977. Total fertility rates declined in 2023, a trend we have seen since 2010. Looking in more detail at fertility rates among women of different ages, the decline in fertility rates has been the most dramatic in the 20-24 and 25-29 age groups.”
With the fertility rate at an all-time low and the number of births continuing to fall, the long-term implications of this trend could pose significant challenges for future population growth and societal planning across England and Wales.
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